Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Irapuato · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5 · 1-1
Tlaxcala are 1W-0D-4L in their last 5 (WLLLL), averaging 0.80 scored and 2.80 conceded, while Irapuato are 1W-2D-2L in their last 5 (WLLDD), averaging 1.20 scored and 1.40 conceded. Both teams scored in 6 of those 10 games and 5 passed 2.5 goals, and Irapuato hold a 32.6-point power-rating edge (18.3 v 51.0). Goalvio's score-distribution model makes 1-1 the most likely exact scoreline at 49.6% in the Liga de Expansión MX, while Irapuato holds the strongest overall chance at 50% on the aggregated 1X2 probabilities, with a 61% BTTS chance and 60% for over 2.5 goals.
Predicted outcome
Irapuato
Probability
49.6%
Model confidence
49.6%
Irapuato has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 4 · GA 14 · avg 0.80/2.80
GF 6 · GA 7 · avg 1.20/1.40