Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Dorados · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5 · 1-1
Tlaxcala are 1W-3D-1L in their last 5 (DDLWD), averaging 0.40 scored and 0.60 conceded, while Dorados are 1W-1D-3L in their last 5 (WLDLL), averaging 1.00 scored and 1.80 conceded. Both teams scored in 4 of those 10 games and 2 passed 2.5 goals, and Dorados hold a 49.7-point power-rating edge (18.3 v 68.0). Goalvio's score-distribution model makes 1-1 the most likely exact scoreline at 52.6% in the Liga de Expansión MX, while Dorados holds the strongest overall chance at 53% on the aggregated 1X2 probabilities, with a 60% BTTS chance and 60% for over 2.5 goals.
Predicted outcome
Dorados
Probability
52.6%
Model confidence
52.6%
Dorados has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 2 · GA 3 · avg 0.40/0.60
GF 5 · GA 9 · avg 1.00/1.80