Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Dorados · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5 · 1-1
Tlaxcala are 1W-0D-4L in their last 5 (WLLLL), averaging 0.60 scored and 1.40 conceded, while Dorados are 1W-1D-3L in their last 5 (DLLWL), averaging 0.80 scored and 2.20 conceded. Both teams scored in 5 of those 10 games and 4 passed 2.5 goals, and Dorados hold a 49.7-point power-rating edge (18.3 v 68.0). Goalvio's score-distribution model makes 1-1 the most likely exact scoreline at 52.6% in the Liga de Expansión MX, while Dorados holds the strongest overall chance at 53% on the aggregated 1X2 probabilities, with a 60% BTTS chance and 60% for over 2.5 goals.
Predicted outcome
Dorados
Probability
52.6%
Model confidence
52.6%
Dorados has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 3 · GA 7 · avg 0.60/1.40
GF 4 · GA 11 · avg 0.80/2.20