Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Celaya · BTTS Yes · Under 2.5 · 1-1
Tlaxcala are 2W-2D-1L in their last 5 (WWDLD), averaging 1.40 scored and 1.20 conceded, while Celaya are 2W-2D-1L in their last 5 (WDDWL), averaging 1.00 scored and 0.60 conceded. Both teams scored in 4 of those 10 games and 3 passed 2.5 goals, and Celaya hold a 34.5-point power-rating edge (18.3 v 52.8). Goalvio's score-distribution model makes 1-1 the most likely exact scoreline at 48.2% in the Liga de Expansión MX, while Celaya holds the strongest overall chance at 48% on the aggregated 1X2 probabilities, with a 51% BTTS chance and 47% for over 2.5 goals.
Predicted outcome
Celaya
Probability
48.2%
Model confidence
48.2%
Celaya has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 7 · GA 6 · avg 1.40/1.20
GF 5 · GA 3 · avg 1.00/0.60