Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Celaya · BTTS Yes · Under 2.5 · 1-1
Tlaxcala are 0W-0D-5L in their last 5 (LLLLL), averaging 0.60 scored and 2.40 conceded, while Celaya are 0W-3D-2L in their last 5 (DDLDL), averaging 0.60 scored and 1.00 conceded. Both teams scored in 6 of those 10 games and 4 passed 2.5 goals, and Celaya hold a 34.5-point power-rating edge (18.3 v 52.8). Goalvio's score-distribution model makes 1-1 the most likely exact scoreline at 48.2% in the Liga de Expansión MX, while Celaya holds the strongest overall chance at 48% on the aggregated 1X2 probabilities, with a 51% BTTS chance and 47% for over 2.5 goals.
Predicted outcome
Celaya
Probability
48.2%
Model confidence
48.2%
Celaya has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 3 · GA 12 · avg 0.60/2.40
GF 3 · GA 5 · avg 0.60/1.00