Tivoli Gardensvs
Chapelton
COMPLETEDJamaica · Premier League · 9/27/2026, 8:30:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Tivoli Gardens · BTTS No · Under 2.5
Projected score: Tivoli Gardens 2-0 Chapelton, with an exact score probability of 17%.
Prediction record
Final result
Tivoli Gardens 1-1 Chapelton
Original prediction
Tivoli Gardens
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 26 September 2026 at 16:44 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 2.19 | 41.1% | 62.3% | 21.2 pts |
| Draw | 3.18 | 28.3% | 21.4% | -6.9 pts |
| Away | 2.95 | 30.5% | 16.3% | -14.3 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw 2.18 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
21.2 pts
Projected Score
Tivoli Gardens 2–0 Chapelton
Exact score probability: 17%
Predicted outcome
Tivoli Gardens
Probability
62.3%
Model confidence
62.3%
Tivoli Gardens has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 6 · GA 10 · avg 1.20/2.00
GF 10 · GA 15 · avg 2.00/3.00