Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Tirana · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (12%), 2-0 (10%), 1-0 (10%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Tirana 4-0 Vora
Original prediction
Tirana
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 27 August 2026 at 00:26 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 2.23 | 40.4% | 45.2% | 4.8 pts |
| Draw | 3.10 | 29.1% | 27.5% | -1.6 pts |
| Away | 2.96 | 30.5% | 27.3% | -3.2 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 1.23 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
4.8 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–112%
- 2.2–010%
- 3.1–010%
Predicted outcome
Tirana
Probability
45.2%
Model confidence
45.2%
Tirana has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
TiranaLLWWW
GF 6 · GA 7 · avg 1.20/1.40
BTTS 2/5O2.5 3/5
VoraLWDLL
GF 5 · GA 11 · avg 1.00/2.20
BTTS 3/5O2.5 3/5
TiranaVora
51.9Attack33.3
54.6Defence0.0
46.3Form0.0
52.2Power15.3
1.81xG0.99