Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Tirana · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (12%), 2-1 (10%), 2-0 (9%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Tirana 1-0 Laci
Original prediction
Tirana
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 20 September 2026 at 19:53 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.82 | 49.5% | 50.2% | 0.7 pts |
| Draw | 3.33 | 27.1% | 24.6% | -2.4 pts |
| Away | 3.84 | 23.5% | 25.2% | 1.7 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 0.82 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
0.7 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–112%
- 2.2–110%
- 3.2–09%
Predicted outcome
Tirana
Probability
50.2%
Model confidence
50.2%
Tirana has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
TiranaWDDWL
GF 11 · GA 7 · avg 2.20/1.40
BTTS 4/5O2.5 4/5
LaciLWLWL
GF 12 · GA 10 · avg 2.40/2.00
BTTS 3/5O2.5 3/5
TiranaLaci
61.1Attack38.9
44.4Defence44.4
44.4Form38.9
49.5Power43.2
1.82xG1.13