Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Karviná · BTTS No · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 0-2 (12%), 0-1 (11%), 1-1 (11%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Třinec 3-2 Karviná
Original prediction
Karviná
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 28 August 2026 at 00:11 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 4.73 | 19.1% | 17.6% | -1.5 pts |
| Draw | 3.91 | 23.2% | 21.7% | -1.5 pts |
| Away | 1.57 | 57.7% | 60.7% | 3.0 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
3.0 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.0–212%
- 2.0–111%
- 3.1–111%
Predicted outcome
Karviná
Probability
60.7%
Model confidence
60.7%
Karviná has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
TřinecLLWDD
GF 8 · GA 9 · avg 1.60/1.80
BTTS 4/5O2.5 4/5
KarvináWLDWW
GF 12 · GA 5 · avg 2.40/1.00
BTTS 3/5O2.5 3/5
TřinecKarviná
33.3Attack66.7
42.9Defence66.7
19.0Form71.4
34.6Power68.4
0.83xG2.03