ASEAN ChampionshipASEAN Championship
Friday, 31 July 202611:00Updated today
Timor-Leste

Timor-Leste

Home
W
vs
11:00
Indonesia

Indonesia

Away
W
Chonburi Daikin Stadium
GoalVio prediction
47% confidence
Indonesia(28%)
Most likely exact score0-1
Win probability
Timor-Leste
47%
Draw
25%
Indonesia
28%
Predicted winner is based on the highest win probability.
Intelligence snapshot
Attack
Timor-Leste
94
Indonesia
34
Defence
Timor-Leste
66
Indonesia
91
Momentum
Timor-Leste
100
Indonesia
100
Danger (xG)
Timor-Leste
2.70
Indonesia
0.90
Both teams to score
No
Over 2.5 goals
No
xG for (Timor-Leste)
2.70
avg per match
xG for (Indonesia)
0.90
avg per match
xG against (Timor-Leste)
0.90
avg per match
xG against (Indonesia)
0.00
avg per match

Momentum trend

last 5 matches
Timor-LesteTimor-Leste
W
IndonesiaIndonesia
W

Probability breakdown

47% confidence
Timor-Leste47%
Draw25%
Indonesia28%

Timor-Leste leads with 47% — the model's highest-probability outcome for this fixture.

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Analysis

Match insights

Timor-Leste head into this in ASEAN Championship fixture at Chonburi Daikin Stadium in mixed form (W), while Indonesia arrive in mixed form (W). Timor-Leste have a 100% win rate across their last 1 matches, compared to 100% for Indonesia over 1 games.

Both sides are defensively strong — Timor-Leste (66/100) and Indonesia (91/100) are both rated highly at the back. The model expects a tight, low-scoring affair with defences on top.

Timor-Leste have won all 1 of their recent home fixtures, averaging 3.0 goals scored and 1.0 conceded per game at home. Indonesia have limited away data in the engine at this stage.

There is no head-to-head data between Timor-Leste and Indonesia in the engine.

The GoalVio engine projects Indonesia to win with 47% confidence. and a most likely scoreline of 0-1. Win probabilities: Timor-Leste 4701%, Draw 2452%, Indonesia 2846%. BTTS: No, Over 2.5: No.

Recent form

Timor-Leste

Timor-Leste

W
vs Brunei
9 Jun 2026
31
Indonesia

Indonesia

W
vs Mozambique
9 Jun 2026
10

Frequently asked questions

Who will win Timor-Leste vs Indonesia?

GoalVio's model predicts Indonesia to win with 47% confidence.

What is the predicted score for Timor-Leste vs Indonesia?

The most likely scoreline according to GoalVio's Skellam-DC model is 0-1.

Will both teams score in Timor-Leste vs Indonesia?

GoalVio's model predicts BTTS: No — at least one team is expected to keep a clean sheet.

Will there be over 2.5 goals in Timor-Leste vs Indonesia?

GoalVio's model predicts Over 2.5 Goals: No — fewer than 3 goals are expected.

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About this prediction
GoalVio Prediction Engine v5 — updated dailyPowered by Poisson, xG and momentum modelsAccuracy last 30 days: 54%Last model update:
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Responsible gambling: Predictions are generated by a statistical model for informational purposes only. Past accuracy does not guarantee future results. Learn more