Tikvešvs
Vardar Skopje
COMPLETEDMacedonia · First League · 8/31/2026, 3:00:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Tikveš · BTTS Yes · Under 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (13%), 1-0 (11%), 2-0 (10%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Tikveš 1-1 Vardar Skopje
Original prediction
Tikveš
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 26 August 2026 at 00:59 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 3.50+| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 3.65 | 24.8% | 42.0% | 17.3 pts |
| Draw | 3.53 | 25.6% | 26.1% | 0.5 pts |
| Away | 1.82 | 49.6% | 31.9% | -17.8 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw 2.53 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
17.3 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–113%
- 2.1–011%
- 3.2–010%
Predicted outcome
Tikveš
Probability
42.0%
Model confidence
42.0%
Tikveš has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
TikvešDLWWL
GF 11 · GA 5 · avg 2.20/1.00
BTTS 2/5O2.5 2/5
Vardar SkopjeWLLLW
GF 8 · GA 9 · avg 1.60/1.80
BTTS 2/5O2.5 2/5
TikvešVardar Skopje
91.7Attack50.0
75.0Defence66.7
58.3Form50.0
69.9Power55.0
1.61xG0.96