Tikvešvs
Bregalnica Štip
COMPLETEDMacedonia · First League · 10/10/2026, 10:00:00 AM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Tikveš · BTTS No · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 2-0 (12%), 1-0 (10%), 2-1 (10%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Tikveš 3-0 Bregalnica Štip
Original prediction
Tikveš
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 15 September 2026 at 18:59 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.20-1.40| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.36 | 66.1% | 62.3% | -3.8 pts |
| Draw | 4.29 | 20.9% | 21.4% | 0.5 pts |
| Away | 6.91 | 13.0% | 16.3% | 3.3 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 0.36 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-3.8 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.2–012%
- 2.1–010%
- 3.2–110%
Predicted outcome
Tikveš
Probability
62.3%
Model confidence
62.3%
Tikveš has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 19 · GA 4 · avg 3.80/0.80
GF 7 · GA 8 · avg 1.40/1.60