Tigres UANLvs
Toluca
COMPLETEDMexico · Liga MX · 10/10/2026, 3:00:00 AM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Toluca · BTTS No · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 0-2 (12%), 0-1 (12%), 1-1 (11%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Tigres UANL 3-2 Toluca
Original prediction
Toluca
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 14 September 2026 at 16:48 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 2.84 | 32.7% | 24.6% | -8.2 pts |
| Draw | 3.44 | 27.0% | 25.7% | -1.3 pts |
| Away | 2.31 | 40.2% | 49.7% | 9.5 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
9.5 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.0–212%
- 2.0–112%
- 3.1–111%
Predicted outcome
Toluca
Probability
49.7%
Model confidence
49.7%
Toluca has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
Tigres UANLWLDDD
GF 2 · GA 3 · avg 0.40/0.60
BTTS 1/5O2.5 0/5
TolucaLDLWW
GF 12 · GA 10 · avg 2.40/2.00
BTTS 4/5O2.5 4/5
Tigres UANLToluca
33.3Attack76.7
56.7Defence60.0
33.3Form66.7
43.5Power67.7
0.80xG1.97