Tigres UANLvs
Puebla
COMPLETEDMexico · Liga MX · 9/27/2026, 3:10:00 AM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Tigres UANL · BTTS No · Under 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (15%), 0-0 (14%), 0-1 (14%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Tigres UANL 1-0 Puebla
Original prediction
Tigres UANL
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 5 September 2026 at 06:46 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.56 | 59.8% | 36.7% | -23.1 pts |
| Draw | 4.15 | 22.4% | 26.7% | 4.3 pts |
| Away | 5.22 | 17.8% | 36.6% | 18.8 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 0.56 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-23.1 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–115%
- 2.0–014%
- 3.0–114%
Predicted outcome
Tigres UANL
Probability
36.7%
Model confidence
36.7%
Tigres UANL has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 3 · GA 3 · avg 0.60/0.60
GF 5 · GA 6 · avg 1.00/1.20