Tigres UANLvs
Leon
COMPLETEDMexico · Liga MX · 10/21/2026, 3:00:00 AM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Tigres UANL · BTTS Yes · Under 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (14%), 0-0 (10%), 0-1 (10%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Tigres UANL 0-2 Leon
Original prediction
Tigres UANL
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 26 September 2026 at 16:10 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 2.03 | 46.0% | 37.8% | -8.2 pts |
| Draw | 3.41 | 27.4% | 26.0% | -1.4 pts |
| Away | 3.50 | 26.7% | 36.2% | 9.6 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-8.2 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–114%
- 2.0–010%
- 3.0–110%
Predicted outcome
Tigres UANL
Probability
37.8%
Model confidence
37.8%
Tigres UANL has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 5 · GA 5 · avg 1.00/1.00
GF 9 · GA 8 · avg 1.80/1.60