Tigres de Alicavs
Tritons Vallarta
COMPLETEDMexico · Primera Premier · 9/27/2026, 12:00:00 AM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Tritons Vallarta · BTTS Yes · Under 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (14%), 0-0 (10%), 0-1 (10%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Tigres de Alica 1-1 Tritons Vallarta
Original prediction
Tritons Vallarta
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 1 September 2026 at 15:51 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 2.14 | 42.1% | 35.5% | -6.6 pts |
| Draw | 3.11 | 29.1% | 28.5% | -0.6 pts |
| Away | 3.14 | 28.8% | 36.0% | 7.2 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw 2.11 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
7.2 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–114%
- 2.0–010%
- 3.0–110%
Predicted outcome
Tritons Vallarta
Probability
36.0%
Model confidence
36.0%
Tritons Vallarta has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 2 · GA 5 · avg 0.40/1.00
GF 9 · GA 6 · avg 1.80/1.20