Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Draw · BTTS No · Under 2.5 · 0-0
Tigre are 2W-0D-3L in their last 5 (WLLLW), averaging 0.80 scored and 1.20 conceded, while Sao Paulo are 1W-0D-0L in their last 1 (W), averaging 1.00 scored and 0.00 conceded. Both teams scored in 1 of those 6 games and 1 passed 2.5 goals, and Sao Paulo hold a 10.3-point power-rating edge (53.6 v 64.0). Goalvio's score-distribution model makes 0-0 the most likely exact scoreline at 43.9% in the CONMEBOL Sudamericana, while a draw holds the strongest overall chance at 44% on the aggregated 1X2 probabilities, with a 28% BTTS chance and 19% for over 2.5 goals.
Predicted outcome
Draw
Probability
43.9%
Model confidence
43.9%
Draw has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 4 · GA 6 · avg 0.80/1.20
GF 1 · GA 0 · avg 1.00/0.00