GGOALVIO

World · CONMEBOL Sudamericana · 6/7/2023, 12:00:00 AM

Unified score-distribution model

Prediction markets

Tigre · BTTS No · Under 2.5 · 1-0

Highconfidence

Tigre are 0W-2D-3L in their last 5 (LLDDL), averaging 0.40 scored and 1.20 conceded, while Puerto Cabello are 2W-1D-2L in their last 5 (LWWLD), averaging 1.00 scored and 1.40 conceded. Both teams scored in 4 of those 10 games and 5 passed 2.5 goals, and Tigre hold an 11.1-point power-rating edge (53.6 v 42.5). Goalvio's score-distribution model makes 1-0 the most likely exact scoreline at 50.0% in the CONMEBOL Sudamericana, while Tigre holds the strongest overall chance at 50% on the aggregated 1X2 probabilities, with a 32% BTTS chance and 27% for over 2.5 goals.

Predicted outcome

Tigre

Probability

50.0%

Model confidence

50.0%

Tigre has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.

Last 5 games

TigreLLDDL

GF 2 · GA 6 · avg 0.40/1.20

BTTS 2/5O2.5 2/5
Puerto CabelloLWWLD

GF 5 · GA 7 · avg 1.00/1.40

BTTS 2/5O2.5 3/5
TigrePuerto Cabello
44.4Attack28.6
70.4Defence57.1
44.4Form38.1
53.6Power42.5
1.27xG0.55
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