Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Draw · BTTS No · Under 2.5 · 0-0
Tigre are 0W-3D-2L in their last 5 (DDLLD), averaging 0.40 scored and 1.00 conceded, while Macara are 1W-2D-2L in their last 5 (LDLDW), averaging 0.80 scored and 1.00 conceded. Both teams scored in 5 of those 10 games and 1 passed 2.5 goals, and Macara hold a 9.4-point power-rating edge (53.6 v 63.1). Goalvio's score-distribution model makes 0-0 the most likely exact scoreline at 43.9% in the CONMEBOL Sudamericana, while a draw holds the strongest overall chance at 44% on the aggregated 1X2 probabilities, with a 28% BTTS chance and 19% for over 2.5 goals.
Predicted outcome
Draw
Probability
43.9%
Model confidence
43.9%
Draw has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 2 · GA 5 · avg 0.40/1.00
GF 4 · GA 5 · avg 0.80/1.00