Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Draw · BTTS No · Under 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (15%), 0-0 (13%), 0-1 (12%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Tiaret 0-1 ASM Oran
Original prediction
Draw
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 5 October 2026 at 12:11 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 2.14 | 41.5% | 34.9% | -6.7 pts |
| Draw | 2.74 | 32.5% | 31.4% | -1.1 pts |
| Away | 3.43 | 26.0% | 33.8% | 7.8 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-1.1 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–115%
- 2.0–013%
- 3.0–112%
Predicted outcome
Draw
Probability
31.4%
Model confidence
34.9%
Draw has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
TiaretLDLLL
GF 4 · GA 10 · avg 0.80/2.00
BTTS 4/5O2.5 3/5
ASM OranLWLWL
GF 7 · GA 5 · avg 1.40/1.00
BTTS 2/5O2.5 2/5
TiaretASM Oran
33.3Attack33.3
33.3Defence66.7
11.1Form33.3
29.5Power45.5
0.99xG1.16