Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Luzern W · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5 · 1-2
Thun W are 2W-1D-2L in their last 5 (WWLLD), averaging 2.00 scored and 1.60 conceded, while Luzern W are 4W-0D-1L in their last 5 (WWWWL), averaging 2.20 scored and 1.20 conceded. Both teams scored in 5 of those 10 games and 7 passed 2.5 goals, and Thun W hold a 9.4-point power-rating edge (33.1 v 23.7). Goalvio's score-distribution model makes 1-2 the most likely exact scoreline at 38.8% in the AXA Women’s Super League, while Luzern W holds the strongest overall chance at 39% on the aggregated 1X2 probabilities, with a 75% BTTS chance and 76% for over 2.5 goals.
Predicted outcome
Luzern W
Probability
38.8%
Model confidence
38.8%
Luzern W has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 10 · GA 8 · avg 2.00/1.60
GF 11 · GA 6 · avg 2.20/1.20