Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Basel W · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5 · 1-3
Thun W are 3W-0D-2L in their last 5 (LLWWW), averaging 3.20 scored and 3.00 conceded, while Basel W are 2W-1D-2L in their last 5 (LWDLW), averaging 1.80 scored and 1.40 conceded. Both teams scored in 8 of those 10 games and 10 passed 2.5 goals, and Basel W hold a 53.4-point power-rating edge (33.1 v 86.5). Goalvio's score-distribution model makes 1-3 the most likely exact scoreline at 47.1% in the AXA Women’s Super League, while Basel W holds the strongest overall chance at 47% on the aggregated 1X2 probabilities, with a 69% BTTS chance and 79% for over 2.5 goals.
Predicted outcome
Basel W
Probability
47.1%
Model confidence
47.1%
Basel W has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 16 · GA 15 · avg 3.20/3.00
GF 9 · GA 7 · avg 1.80/1.40