Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Basel W · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5 · 1-3
Thun W are 1W-0D-4L in their last 5 (WLLLL), averaging 0.40 scored and 2.60 conceded, while Basel W are 3W-1D-1L in their last 5 (LWWDW), averaging 3.80 scored and 1.40 conceded. Both teams scored in 4 of those 10 games and 6 passed 2.5 goals, and Basel W hold a 53.4-point power-rating edge (33.1 v 86.5). Goalvio's score-distribution model makes 1-3 the most likely exact scoreline at 47.1% in the AXA Women’s Super League, while Basel W holds the strongest overall chance at 47% on the aggregated 1X2 probabilities, with a 69% BTTS chance and 79% for over 2.5 goals.
Predicted outcome
Basel W
Probability
47.1%
Model confidence
47.1%
Basel W has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 2 · GA 13 · avg 0.40/2.60
GF 19 · GA 7 · avg 3.80/1.40