Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Aarau W · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5 · 1-1
Thun W are 0W-0D-5L in their last 5 (LLLLL), averaging 0.80 scored and 2.80 conceded, while Aarau W are 0W-1D-4L in their last 5 (DLLLL), averaging 0.80 scored and 2.20 conceded. Both teams scored in 6 of those 10 games and 6 passed 2.5 goals, and Thun W hold a 19.9-point power-rating edge (33.1 v 13.2). Goalvio's score-distribution model makes 1-1 the most likely exact scoreline at 36.0% in the AXA Women’s Super League, while Aarau W holds the strongest overall chance at 36% on the aggregated 1X2 probabilities, with a 76% BTTS chance and 77% for over 2.5 goals.
Predicted outcome
Aarau W
Probability
36.0%
Model confidence
36.0%
Aarau W has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 4 · GA 14 · avg 0.80/2.80
GF 4 · GA 11 · avg 0.80/2.20