Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Aarau W · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5 · 1-1
Thun W are 0W-0D-5L in their last 5 (LLLLL), averaging 0.60 scored and 4.00 conceded, while Aarau W are 2W-0D-3L in their last 5 (WLWLL), averaging 1.20 scored and 1.60 conceded. Both teams scored in 5 of those 10 games and 8 passed 2.5 goals, and Thun W hold a 19.9-point power-rating edge (33.1 v 13.2). Goalvio's score-distribution model makes 1-1 the most likely exact scoreline at 36.0% in the AXA Women’s Super League, while Aarau W holds the strongest overall chance at 36% on the aggregated 1X2 probabilities, with a 76% BTTS chance and 77% for over 2.5 goals.
Predicted outcome
Aarau W
Probability
36.0%
Model confidence
36.0%
Aarau W has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 3 · GA 20 · avg 0.60/4.00
GF 6 · GA 8 · avg 1.20/1.60