GGOALVIO

Australia · NNSW League 1 · 4/11/2025, 10:00:00 AM

Unified score-distribution model

Prediction markets

Lake Macquarie · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5 · 1-4

Highconfidence

Thornton Redbacks are 0W-1D-4L in their last 5 (LLLLD), averaging 1.00 scored and 4.00 conceded, while Lake Macquarie are 2W-0D-3L in their last 5 (WWLLL), averaging 2.00 scored and 2.20 conceded. Both teams scored in 9 of those 10 games and 10 passed 2.5 goals, and Lake Macquarie hold a 34.5-point power-rating edge (39.1 v 73.6). Goalvio's score-distribution model makes 1-4 the most likely exact scoreline at 77.4% in the NNSW League 1, while Lake Macquarie holds the strongest overall chance at 77% on the aggregated 1X2 probabilities, with a 74% BTTS chance and 89% for over 2.5 goals.

Predicted outcome

Lake Macquarie

Probability

77.4%

Model confidence

77.4%

Lake Macquarie has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.

Last 5 games

Thornton RedbacksLLLLD

GF 5 · GA 20 · avg 1.00/4.00

BTTS 4/5O2.5 5/5
Lake MacquarieWWLLL

GF 10 · GA 11 · avg 2.00/2.20

BTTS 5/5O2.5 5/5
Thornton RedbacksLake Macquarie
52.2Attack100.0
26.1Defence55.6
36.2Form75.9
39.1Power73.6
1.41xG4.22
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