Thor Akureyrivs
Stjarnan
COMPLETEDIceland · Úrvalsdeild · 10/17/2026, 2:00:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Stjarnan · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-2 (8%), 1-3 (8%), 1-1 (7%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Thor Akureyri 3-1 Stjarnan
Original prediction
Stjarnan
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 20 September 2026 at 12:23 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 2.54 | 35.7% | 25.6% | -10.1 pts |
| Draw | 3.87 | 23.4% | 18.4% | -5.0 pts |
| Away | 2.22 | 40.8% | 56.0% | 15.1 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
15.1 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–28%
- 2.1–38%
- 3.1–17%
Predicted outcome
Stjarnan
Probability
56.0%
Model confidence
56.0%
Stjarnan has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 4 · GA 7 · avg 0.80/1.40
GF 8 · GA 10 · avg 1.60/2.00