Úrvalsdeild
Thor Akureyri
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KR Reykjavik
AwayThe model sees this as an open match — all three outcomes are within a tight range.
The model projects 1.34 xG for Thor Akureyri and 1.35 xG for KR Reykjavik. Thor Akureyri's projected xG of 1.34 is not sufficient to make scoring a reliable expectation — the model does not see them generating enough high-quality chances to break through.The projected 0-1 scoreline features a clean sheet for one side. With only 1 goal expected in total, the match is projected to be a tight, low-scoring affair where one goal may be enough to decide the contest.
The model projects a combined xG of 2.69 — elevated attacking volume. A combined xG below 2.5 is the model's primary signal that the match is unlikely to produce more than two goals, and this fixture falls below that threshold.The projected 0-1 scoreline stays under the 2.5-goal mark. Only 1 goal is expected in the most likely outcome — the model sees this as a tight, low-scoring contest where one goal could be decisive.
Momentum trend
last 5 matchesThor AkureyriKR ReykjavikProbability breakdown
KR Reykjavik leads with 36% — the model's highest-probability outcome for this fixture.
KR Reykjavik Backed to Win — Model Projects 1-2
Thor Akureyri take on KR Reykjavik in Úrvalsdeild.
Key factors
Why GoalVio backs this
KR Reykjavik hold a slim but consistent edge across the key input metrics. No single factor clears the threshold required to claim a material advantage, but chance quality, defensive organisation, and recent form all point in the same direction — and when multiple independent signals align, that convergence is the model's case for KR Reykjavik.
Biggest risk: The xG gap between these sides is narrow — a small swing in form, a set-piece goal, or a tactical adjustment could flip the result. The model favours KR Reykjavik, but this is not a fixture where the outcome is a foregone conclusion. If Thor Akureyri score first, the game becomes genuinely open.
Risk factors
- ⚠KR Reykjavik have been conceding 2.22 goals per game — their defence could be exposed.
- ⚠The xG gap is narrow at 0.01 — a small swing in form or tactics could flip the result.
- ⚠Live conditions — weather, team news, and in-game momentum — can always override statistical projections.
Head to head
Recent form
Thor Akureyri
KR Reykjavik
Frequently asked questions
Who will win Thor Akureyri vs KR Reykjavik?
GoalVio's model predicts KR Reykjavik to win with 37% confidence.
What is the predicted score for Thor Akureyri vs KR Reykjavik?
The most likely scoreline according to GoalVio's Skellam-DC model is 1-2.
Will both teams score in Thor Akureyri vs KR Reykjavik?
GoalVio's model predicts BTTS: Yes — both teams are expected to score.
Will there be over 2.5 goals in Thor Akureyri vs KR Reykjavik?
GoalVio's model predicts Over 2.5 Goals: Yes.