Thor Akureyrivs
IBV Vestmannaeyjar
COMPLETEDIceland · Úrvalsdeild · 10/10/2026, 2:00:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
IBV Vestmannaeyjar · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (10%), 1-2 (10%), 0-2 (7%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Thor Akureyri 1-0 IBV Vestmannaeyjar
Original prediction
IBV Vestmannaeyjar
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 13 September 2026 at 21:06 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 2.73 | 33.3% | 30.7% | -2.6 pts |
| Draw | 3.43 | 26.4% | 26.7% | 0.3 pts |
| Away | 2.25 | 40.3% | 42.7% | 2.4 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
2.3 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–110%
- 2.1–210%
- 3.0–27%
Predicted outcome
IBV Vestmannaeyjar
Probability
42.7%
Model confidence
42.7%
IBV Vestmannaeyjar has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 5 · GA 11 · avg 1.00/2.20
GF 3 · GA 7 · avg 0.60/1.40