Thionville Lusitanosvs
Versailles
COMPLETEDFrance · Ligue 3 · 10/17/2026, 12:45:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Versailles · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (13%), 2-1 (9%), 1-2 (8%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Thionville Lusitanos 1-2 Versailles
Original prediction
Versailles
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 3 October 2026 at 00:02 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 3.48 | 26.1% | 36.0% | 9.9 pts |
| Draw | 3.36 | 27.0% | 24.7% | -2.2 pts |
| Away | 1.93 | 46.9% | 39.3% | -7.6 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 0.93 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-7.6 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–113%
- 2.2–19%
- 3.1–28%
Predicted outcome
Versailles
Probability
39.3%
Model confidence
39.3%
Versailles has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 4 · GA 10 · avg 0.80/2.00
GF 7 · GA 4 · avg 1.40/0.80