Thionville Lusitanosvs
Rouen
COMPLETEDFrance · Ligue 3 · 9/12/2026, 12:45:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Thionville Lusitanos · BTTS Yes · Under 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (14%), 1-0 (10%), 0-0 (10%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Thionville Lusitanos 0-4 Rouen
Original prediction
Thionville Lusitanos
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 29 August 2026 at 00:04 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 3.15 | 28.8% | 37.3% | 8.5 pts |
| Draw | 3.30 | 27.5% | 27.2% | -0.3 pts |
| Away | 2.08 | 43.7% | 35.5% | -8.2 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
8.5 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–114%
- 2.1–010%
- 3.0–010%
Predicted outcome
Thionville Lusitanos
Probability
37.3%
Model confidence
37.3%
Thionville Lusitanos has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 12 · GA 6 · avg 2.40/1.20
GF 8 · GA 2 · avg 1.60/0.40