Thionville Lusitanosvs
La Roche VF
COMPLETEDFrance · Ligue 3 · 9/26/2026, 6:45:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
La Roche VF · BTTS Yes · Under 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (14%), 0-1 (10%), 0-0 (9%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Thionville Lusitanos 1-2 La Roche VF
Original prediction
La Roche VF
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 3 September 2026 at 16:33 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 2.58 | 35.2% | 34.0% | -1.3 pts |
| Draw | 3.18 | 28.5% | 29.7% | 1.1 pts |
| Away | 2.50 | 36.3% | 36.4% | 0.1 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 1.50 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
0.1 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–114%
- 2.0–110%
- 3.0–09%
Predicted outcome
La Roche VF
Probability
36.4%
Model confidence
36.4%
La Roche VF has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 6 · GA 8 · avg 1.20/1.60
GF 6 · GA 4 · avg 1.20/0.80