Thionville Lusitanosvs
Gobelins
COMPLETEDFrance · Ligue 3 · 8/29/2026, 12:45:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Thionville Lusitanos · BTTS No · Under 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (13%), 1-0 (13%), 2-0 (11%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Thionville Lusitanos 1-1 Gobelins
Original prediction
Thionville Lusitanos
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 26 August 2026 at 00:55 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.93 | 46.9% | 47.6% | 0.7 pts |
| Draw | 3.04 | 29.9% | 27.7% | -2.2 pts |
| Away | 3.91 | 23.2% | 24.7% | 1.5 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw 2.04 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
0.7 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–113%
- 2.1–013%
- 3.2–011%
Predicted outcome
Thionville Lusitanos
Probability
47.6%
Model confidence
47.6%
Thionville Lusitanos has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 16 · GA 5 · avg 3.20/1.00
GF 5 · GA 6 · avg 1.00/1.20