Thespakusatsu Gunmavs
Fukushima United
COMPLETEDJapan · J3 League · 9/5/2026, 10:00:00 AM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Thespakusatsu Gunma · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (11%), 2-1 (9%), 1-2 (8%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Thespakusatsu Gunma 1-3 Fukushima United
Original prediction
Thespakusatsu Gunma
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 27 August 2026 at 00:13 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 2.19 | 41.2% | 39.9% | -1.3 pts |
| Draw | 3.33 | 27.0% | 25.5% | -1.5 pts |
| Away | 2.83 | 31.8% | 34.6% | 2.8 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-1.3 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–111%
- 2.2–19%
- 3.1–28%
Predicted outcome
Thespakusatsu Gunma
Probability
39.9%
Model confidence
39.9%
Thespakusatsu Gunma has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 7 · GA 14 · avg 1.40/2.80
GF 7 · GA 11 · avg 1.40/2.20