Thespakusatsu Gunmavs
FC Ryukyu
COMPLETEDJapan · J3 League · 10/10/2026, 5:00:00 AM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
FC Ryukyu · BTTS No · Under 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (14%), 0-1 (13%), 0-0 (12%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Thespakusatsu Gunma 2-1 FC Ryukyu
Original prediction
FC Ryukyu
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 20 September 2026 at 01:44 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 2.50 | 36.0% | 26.8% | -9.2 pts |
| Draw | 3.42 | 26.3% | 26.1% | -0.2 pts |
| Away | 2.39 | 37.7% | 47.1% | 9.4 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
9.5 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–114%
- 2.0–113%
- 3.0–012%
Predicted outcome
FC Ryukyu
Probability
47.1%
Model confidence
47.1%
FC Ryukyu has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 3 · GA 9 · avg 0.60/1.80
GF 5 · GA 6 · avg 1.00/1.20