The New Saintsvs
Colwyn Bay
COMPLETEDWales · Premier League · 8/28/2026, 6:45:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
The New Saints · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (12%), 2-0 (10%), 1-0 (10%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
The New Saints 5-1 Colwyn Bay
Original prediction
The New Saints
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 26 August 2026 at 00:52 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.20-1.40| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.25 | 72.2% | 56.5% | -15.7 pts |
| Draw | 5.16 | 17.5% | 23.1% | 5.6 pts |
| Away | 8.76 | 10.3% | 20.5% | 10.2 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 0.25 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-15.7 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–112%
- 2.2–010%
- 3.1–010%
Predicted outcome
The New Saints
Probability
56.5%
Model confidence
56.5%
The New Saints has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 9 · GA 0 · avg 1.80/0.00
GF 6 · GA 5 · avg 1.20/1.00