Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Thanh Hóa · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (13%), 2-1 (9%), 1-0 (8%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Thanh Hóa 0-2 Nam Dinh
Original prediction
Thanh Hóa
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 20 September 2026 at 20:08 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 3.50+| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 3.65 | 24.8% | 37.7% | 12.9 pts |
| Draw | 3.26 | 27.7% | 26.7% | -1.0 pts |
| Away | 1.90 | 47.5% | 35.6% | -11.9 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
12.9 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–113%
- 2.2–19%
- 3.1–08%
Predicted outcome
Thanh Hóa
Probability
37.7%
Model confidence
37.7%
Thanh Hóa has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
Thanh HóaWLLWL
GF 6 · GA 11 · avg 1.20/2.20
BTTS 3/5O2.5 4/5
Nam DinhDLWLD
GF 8 · GA 9 · avg 1.60/1.80
BTTS 3/5O2.5 3/5
Thanh HóaNam Dinh
66.7Attack55.6
44.4Defence55.6
66.7Form44.4
62.6Power49.8
1.63xG1.28