Thame Unitedvs
Exmouth
COMPLETEDEngland · FA Cup · 9/19/2026, 2:00:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Thame United · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (10%), 2-1 (9%), 1-2 (7%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Thame United 3-3 Exmouth
Original prediction
Thame United
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 14 September 2026 at 06:18 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.70 | 53.4% | 43.8% | -9.7 pts |
| Draw | 4.07 | 22.3% | 25.3% | 3.0 pts |
| Away | 3.74 | 24.3% | 30.9% | 6.7 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw 3.07 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-9.7 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–110%
- 2.2–19%
- 3.1–27%
Predicted outcome
Thame United
Probability
43.8%
Model confidence
43.8%
Thame United has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 9 · GA 5 · avg 1.80/1.00
GF 4 · GA 8 · avg 0.80/1.60