Thame Unitedvs
Eastbourne Borough
COMPLETEDEngland · FA Cup · 10/3/2026, 2:00:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Eastbourne Borough · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (9%), 1-2 (8%), 2-1 (8%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Thame United 0-1 Eastbourne Borough
Original prediction
Eastbourne Borough
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 27 September 2026 at 00:00 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 4.10 | 22.1% | 32.1% | 9.9 pts |
| Draw | 4.17 | 21.8% | 26.4% | 4.6 pts |
| Away | 1.62 | 56.1% | 41.5% | -14.5 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 0.62 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-14.6 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–19%
- 2.1–28%
- 3.2–18%
Predicted outcome
Eastbourne Borough
Probability
41.5%
Model confidence
41.5%
Eastbourne Borough has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 12 · GA 8 · avg 2.40/1.60
GF 16 · GA 5 · avg 3.20/1.00