Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Thailand · BTTS Yes · Under 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (14%), 1-0 (11%), 0-0 (10%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Thailand 2-0 Vietnam
Original prediction
Thailand
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 29 September 2026 at 00:01 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 2.20 | 41.1% | 41.0% | -0.1 pts |
| Draw | 3.14 | 28.9% | 28.8% | -0.1 pts |
| Away | 3.03 | 30.0% | 30.2% | 0.2 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 1.20 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-0.1 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–114%
- 2.1–011%
- 3.0–010%
Predicted outcome
Thailand
Probability
41.0%
Model confidence
41.0%
Thailand has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
ThailandWDLLW
GF 10 · GA 7 · avg 2.00/1.40
BTTS 3/5O2.5 4/5
VietnamWDWWW
GF 9 · GA 2 · avg 1.80/0.40
BTTS 1/5O2.5 1/5
ThailandVietnam
100.0Attack33.3
100.0Defence100.0
100.0Form100.0
97.0Power80.3
1.42xG1.03