Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Real Jaén · BTTS No · Under 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (15%), 0-0 (11%), 0-1 (11%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Teruel 0-1 Real Jaén
Original prediction
Real Jaén
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 30 August 2026 at 00:06 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 2.99 | 30.3% | 32.0% | 1.8 pts |
| Draw | 2.93 | 30.9% | 29.7% | -1.2 pts |
| Away | 2.33 | 38.8% | 38.3% | -0.5 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 1.33 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-0.5 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–115%
- 2.0–011%
- 3.0–111%
Predicted outcome
Real Jaén
Probability
38.3%
Model confidence
38.3%
Real Jaén has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
TeruelLDLWD
GF 2 · GA 7 · avg 0.40/1.40
BTTS 1/5O2.5 2/5
Real JaénDWLDD
GF 8 · GA 6 · avg 1.60/1.20
BTTS 4/5O2.5 3/5
TeruelReal Jaén
0.0Attack66.7
33.3Defence33.3
16.7Form33.3
21.0Power45.3
1.06xG1.25