Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Draw · BTTS No · Under 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (15%), 0-0 (14%), 0-1 (12%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Teruel 1-1 Águilas
Original prediction
Draw
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 7 October 2026 at 08:55 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 2.81 | 32.4% | 33.2% | 0.8 pts |
| Draw | 2.90 | 31.4% | 30.7% | -0.7 pts |
| Away | 2.51 | 36.2% | 36.2% | -0.0 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 1.90 · Draw 1.90 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-0.7 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–115%
- 2.0–014%
- 3.0–112%
Predicted outcome
Draw
Probability
30.7%
Model confidence
36.2%
Draw has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
TeruelLWLDL
GF 3 · GA 9 · avg 0.60/1.80
BTTS 2/5O2.5 1/5
ÁguilasLDLLD
GF 5 · GA 10 · avg 1.00/2.00
BTTS 4/5O2.5 3/5
TeruelÁguilas
12.5Attack33.3
41.7Defence41.7
20.8Form25.0
28.7Power36.4
1.00xG1.10