Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Alcorcon · BTTS No · Over 2.5
Projected score: Teruel 0-2 Alcorcon, with an exact score probability of 15%.
Prediction record
Final result
Teruel 1-0 Alcorcon
Original prediction
Alcorcon
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 12 September 2026 at 06:24 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 4.31 | 21.1% | 20.8% | -0.3 pts |
| Draw | 3.22 | 28.3% | 25.7% | -2.6 pts |
| Away | 1.80 | 50.6% | 53.5% | 2.8 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
2.8 pts
Projected Score
Teruel 0–2 Alcorcon
Exact score probability: 15%
Predicted outcome
Alcorcon
Probability
53.5%
Model confidence
53.5%
Alcorcon has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
TeruelLDLLL
GF 2 · GA 12 · avg 0.40/2.40
BTTS 2/5O2.5 2/5
AlcorconWWWDD
GF 11 · GA 2 · avg 2.20/0.40
BTTS 2/5O2.5 3/5
TeruelAlcorcon
11.1Attack72.2
33.3Defence77.8
11.1Form66.7
22.6Power70.4
0.60xG2.22