Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Šternberk · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 3-1 (7%), 3-2 (7%), 2-1 (6%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Šternberk 1-0 Bzenec
Original prediction
Šternberk
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 12 September 2026 at 00:00 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.62 | 55.7% | 57.3% | 1.5 pts |
| Draw | 4.08 | 22.1% | 19.1% | -3.0 pts |
| Away | 4.07 | 22.2% | 23.6% | 1.4 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 0.62 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
1.6 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.3–17%
- 2.3–27%
- 3.2–16%
Predicted outcome
Šternberk
Probability
57.3%
Model confidence
57.3%
Šternberk has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
ŠternberkLLWWL
GF 12 · GA 11 · avg 2.40/2.20
BTTS 3/5O2.5 4/5
BzenecLLLLL
GF 8 · GA 21 · avg 1.60/4.20
BTTS 4/5O2.5 5/5
ŠternberkBzenec
66.7Attack57.1
28.6Defence0.0
33.3Form14.3
40.4Power26.1
3.37xG2.00