TepatitlánvsTapatío

Tepatitlán are 1W-1D-3L in their last 5 (WDLLL), averaging 0.80 scored and 1.20 conceded, while Tapatío are 3W-1D-1L in their last 5 (WDWWL), averaging 2.80 scored and 1.80 conceded. Both teams scored in 7 of those 10 games and 6 passed 2.5 goals, and Tapatío hold a 45.8-point power-rating edge (13.0 v 58.8). Goalvio's score-distribution model makes 1-1 the most likely exact scoreline at 54.0% in the Liga de Expansión MX, while Tapatío holds the strongest overall chance at 54% on the aggregated 1X2 probabilities, with a 57% BTTS chance and 57% for over 2.5 goals.