TepatitlánvsTapatío

Tepatitlán are 0W-0D-5L in their last 5 (LLLLL), averaging 0.20 scored and 2.40 conceded, while Tapatío are 1W-2D-2L in their last 5 (DWLLD), averaging 1.20 scored and 1.00 conceded. Both teams scored in 3 of those 10 games and 5 passed 2.5 goals, and Tapatío hold a 45.8-point power-rating edge (13.0 v 58.8). Goalvio's score-distribution model makes 1-1 the most likely exact scoreline at 54.0% in the Liga de Expansión MX, while Tapatío holds the strongest overall chance at 54% on the aggregated 1X2 probabilities, with a 57% BTTS chance and 57% for over 2.5 goals.