Tepatitlánvs
Celaya
COMPLETEDMexico · Liga de Expansión MX · 3/1/2024, 1:05:00 AM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Celaya · BTTS No · Under 2.5 · 1-1
Tepatitlán are 1W-1D-3L in their last 5 (LDWLL), averaging 0.60 scored and 2.60 conceded, while Celaya are 4W-1D-0L in their last 5 (WDWWW), averaging 2.40 scored and 0.80 conceded. Both teams scored in 5 of those 10 games and 5 passed 2.5 goals, and Celaya hold a 39.8-point power-rating edge (13.0 v 52.8). Goalvio's score-distribution model makes 1-1 the most likely exact scoreline at 53.1% in the Liga de Expansión MX, while Celaya holds the strongest overall chance at 53% on the aggregated 1X2 probabilities, with a 49% BTTS chance and 48% for over 2.5 goals.
Predicted outcome
Celaya
Probability
53.1%
Model confidence
53.1%
Celaya has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 3 · GA 13 · avg 0.60/2.60
GF 12 · GA 4 · avg 2.40/0.80