TepatitlánvsAlebrijes de Oaxaca

Tepatitlán are 1W-1D-3L in their last 5 (LWLLD), averaging 1.40 scored and 1.40 conceded, while Alebrijes de Oaxaca are 0W-1D-4L in their last 5 (DLLLL), averaging 1.20 scored and 2.80 conceded. Both teams scored in 7 of those 10 games and 8 passed 2.5 goals, and Alebrijes de Oaxaca hold a 33.7-point power-rating edge (13.0 v 46.7). Goalvio's score-distribution model makes 1-1 the most likely exact scoreline at 44.2% in the Liga de Expansión MX, while Alebrijes de Oaxaca holds the strongest overall chance at 44% on the aggregated 1X2 probabilities, with a 53% BTTS chance and 49% for over 2.5 goals.