Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Draw · BTTS No · Under 2.5
Projected score: Tenerife 0-0 Leganes, with an exact score probability of 28%.
Prediction record
Final result
Tenerife 2-0 Leganes
Original prediction
Draw
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 30 August 2026 at 00:06 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 2.25 | 41.3% | 31.6% | -9.6 pts |
| Draw | 2.98 | 31.1% | 33.2% | 2.1 pts |
| Away | 3.36 | 27.7% | 35.1% | 7.5 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
2.1 pts
Projected Score
Tenerife 0–0 Leganes
Exact score probability: 28%
Predicted outcome
Draw
Probability
33.2%
Model confidence
35.1%
Draw has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
TenerifeDLWWD
GF 5 · GA 3 · avg 1.00/0.60
BTTS 2/5O2.5 1/5
LeganesDWWDD
GF 3 · GA 1 · avg 0.60/0.20
BTTS 1/5O2.5 0/5
TenerifeLeganes
30.2Attack44.4
67.5Defence78.6
44.4Form58.7
49.5Power61.2
0.48xG0.82