Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Girona · BTTS No · Under 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (13%), 0-1 (12%), 0-2 (10%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Tenerife 1-1 Girona
Original prediction
Girona
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 13 September 2026 at 17:57 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 2.77 | 33.5% | 28.6% | -4.8 pts |
| Draw | 3.10 | 29.9% | 28.3% | -1.6 pts |
| Away | 2.54 | 36.6% | 43.1% | 6.5 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw 2.10 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
6.5 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–113%
- 2.0–112%
- 3.0–210%
Predicted outcome
Girona
Probability
43.1%
Model confidence
43.1%
Girona has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
TenerifeLDLWD
GF 6 · GA 10 · avg 1.20/2.00
BTTS 3/5O2.5 2/5
GironaDWWLW
GF 7 · GA 3 · avg 1.40/0.60
BTTS 2/5O2.5 2/5
TenerifeGirona
41.7Attack58.3
50.0Defence66.7
45.8Form58.3
47.0Power61.8
0.94xG1.56